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Date: 2013-01-02 07:05 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] flippac
Probability has this nasty thing whereby "almost certainly" ^ 10 really isn't "almost certainly" any more, it's something that a) messes people up a lot b) feeds into all kinds of abusive behaviour. Might be a bit of a pet issue of mine, or maybe option b has happened to me a bit much. Shrinks, y'know? That and the whole "these things aren't independent" and "single causes of complex messes are rarer than you expect" thing leading to people being told they-as-they-are clearly can't exist because the odds are so far against it.

I still need to read up properly on some actual fuzzy logics as used by logicians, see how they compare to the ad hoc stuff I do in my head. I guess I'm lucky I have a lot of comparatively well-developed instincts about probability by now too. Turns out all that obsessive gaming was useful.

Depression's got a bunch of its own issues that lead to less than rational behaviour at various layers! Lack of ability to motivate yourself when you've reached a conscious decision, say. But exploiting the placebo effect (with informed consent) for fun and profit? Definitely a thing, despite the way it involves generating seemingly irrational behaviours! Brains're weird, anyone who expects "perfectly rational behaviour" is being both irrational and implicitly "religious" about it.
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